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Self-driving cars will be the norm by 2030.

Agree. The technology is nearly ready. The last piece is really just legislation that will make this legal across the country.

Disagree. Besides a few companies in Silicon Valley testing these cars for the last year or so there isn't much data showing that these are cars are even close to becoming mainstream.

Yeah but 15 years in the tech world is forever. Look at how fast Uber grew from nothing to a common mode of transportation.

Yeah but Uber is basically a system for making an existing transportation network more efficient. Self-driving cars are a radical shift in what that network is. Almost like building a new highway or train system.

Fine but self-driving cars don't require many changes to infrastructure. It's all about equipping new and some existing vehicles with tech that can navigate our current road system.

Fine going back to legislation, there are so many variables that are unaccounted for. How does insurance work? If someone gets killed by a self-driving car who is responsible? 

Ok but insurance companies and politicians should be thrilled about self-driving cars. Most accidents are caused by human error, and if you take humans out of the equation you have less deaths.

OK but don't forget that car companies give quite a bit of money to those politicians you're talking about. A lot more than any company that's focusing on self-driving technology right now. Politicians will not be incentivized to move quickly on a technology that may destroy their industry.

Sure but you're assuming that those companies will lose out if cars can drive themselves. There's no reason they can't keep selling their vehicles in this newer format.

Sure but if cars can all drive themselves, there's not much incentive for people to buy cars and have them sitting around 90% of the time. When cars can go get people on their own, that means a car owner can rent out their car when it's not being used. That means less total cars on the road.

But isn't that a great thing? Consumers have so much to gain from self-driving cars that they'll be enough people clamoring for their legislators to pass the needed laws to get these things on the road well before 2030.

But as soon as one of these cars gets hacked and kills an important person, the whole movement will be set back by decades. It doesn't matter if self-driving cars are safer based on pure data, humans fear losing control...even if it's the safer route.

 

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